BY: Seth Warren Heath
FOR: Dr. Neil Mitchell
DATE: December 5, 2002
The Pyongyang Declaration
On September 17, 2002 Japan’s Prime Minister Koizumi and Chairman Kim Jong-Il of North Korea met in Pyongyang, North Korea to discuss the establishment of normalized diplomatic relations. According to the New York Times the two countries “have had no diplomatic relations since 1948.”[1] The product of the summit was the Pyongyang Declaration. It is important to examine the political ramifications of the Pyongyang Declaration, the events surrounding its conception, potential outcomes and the implications for the people of Japan.
Political Signifigance
The Declaration is politically significant for several reasons. In the declaration Japan “expressed deep remorse and heartfelt apology” for causing “tremendous damage and suffering to the people of Korea through its colonial rule in the past.”[2] North Korea in return admitted that it had kidnapped 13 Japanese for use in its espionage programs. These admissions were demonstrations of good faith by the two countries. More importantly the declaration set the framework for future talks in which the two nations “expressed their strong determination that they would sincerely tackle outstanding problems”[3] Of primary concern to the Japanese is North Korea’s continued expansion of its various weapons programs. The Pyongyang Declaration provided promising language but if the past is any indication of the future the road to normalization contains many navigational obstacles and perplexing propositions.
History
Since
North Korea’s inception in 1948 the two countries’ relationship has been
tenuous at best. As seen on the map below the Sea of Japan is the only thing
separating the two nations. 
In
1998 North Korea launched a Taepodong intercontinental ballistic missile on a
trajectory that crossed over part of Japan. This event garnered global
attention and dramatically elevated tensions with Japan. Recently U.S. State
Department Spokesman Richard Boucher was quoted in Jiji Press as saying in a
written statement, “It is our assessment that North Korea has an active
biological weapons program and is capable of producing and delivering, via
munitions, a wide variety of chemical and biological agents”[4]
Add to the quandary recent revelations by North Korea that it possesses nuclear
weapons technology and Japanese politicians are presented with potentially
cataclysmic circumstances.
Complexities
Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution prevents Japan from maintaining an aggressive military, however, they do have the Japanese Self Defense Force, the SDF. Due to limitations placed on the Japanese military a preemptive military strike against North Korea is out of the question and could potentially cause China to get involved. Since Japan is limited militarily it primarily contributes economic support to other nations that are involved in military actions. By the same token North Korea relies heavily on subsidies from outside nations. It appears that North Koreas reasons for seeking normalized relations with Japan are economically motivated.
Economics
According to Business Week, “Economic assistance from Japan will likely be the most important factor invigorating the North Korean economy,”[5] Specific language in the Pyongyang Declaration illustrates that economic support is the preferred avenue North Korea seeks to travel on the way to Japanese national security. The Declaration actually stipulates that “economic co-operation …by the Japanese side to the DPRK side, including grant aids, long-term loans with low interest rates…humanitarian assistance through international organizations… providing other loans and credits by such financial institutions as the Japan Bank”[6] is in the sprit of the agreement. In return North Korea also promised “an overall resolution of the nuclear issues on the Korean Peninsula, (that) they would comply with all related international agreements… resolving security problems including nuclear and missile issues…The DPRK side expressed its intention that, pursuant to the spirit of this Declaration, it would further maintain the moratorium on missile launching in and after 2003.”[7] Events subsequent to the Pyongyang Declaration serve to reinforce the idea that North Korea is in effect extorting Japan into giving economic aid.
Problems
A primary sticking point in the Japanese – North Korean relationship is North Koreas kidnapping of 13 Japanese citizens. The issue is hugely political in Japan and a source of serious distrust with the Japanese people. Recently North Korea allowed the 5 surviving abducted Japanese to visit Japan but kept their children. Japan has since refused to send the abductees back to N. Korea in an understandable violation of an agreement between the two nations. Due to this turn of events North Korea broke off talks of normalization and, according to the New York Times, threatened “that unless relations with Japan are quickly normalized it would resume its testing of ballistic missiles.”[8] Japan recently sent over a high level diplomat in order to “seek a promise from Pyongyang that the families of the five abduction victims will be allowed to come to Japan as a precondition for resuming normalization talks.”[9]
Possibilities
Possible outcomes cover a wide range of possibilities. In a worst-case scenario North Korea continues on its current path of economic deprivation and weapons proliferation potentially jeopardizing not only Japanese national security but also global peace. In a best-case scenario North Korea agrees to release the families of the abducted Japanese and Japan provides what Business Week says, “could include grants and loans of up to $10 billion--which would be key in unlocking the frozen gears of North Korea's economy.”[10] Ideally North Korea would also quit its nuclear weapons program resulting in the removal of a fuel oil embargo placed against them by the U.S. and the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, KEDO.
Uniqueness
The Japanese-North Korean situation is unique due to Japan’s lack of a traditional military. In most areas of the world if a neighbor launches an unannounced ICBM over your country a military response is in order. In this case Japan relies heavily on the United States for its defense and utilizes monetary negotiations in order to achieve its own desired policy results. It does posses certain similarities to political problems confronting various countries around the globe.
Global Implications
While the methods of dealing with threats vary widely the common thread is the threat presented by rogue governments to neighboring nations. Anytime a state behaves in a manner inconsistent with global policies on weapons proliferation and issues of national sovereignty it creates a tremendous burden on bordering countries.
Implications for Japan
From a Japanese perspective the Pyongyang Declaration provides several benefits. The Declaration provides formal admittance from North Korea that it abducted Japanese citizens and thus paves the way for further progress on an issue that is of significant importance to the Japanese people. It also creates the possibility of normalized relations with a neighboring state that possesses weapons of mass destruction and provides an avenue for increased economic markets. The single most important thing provided by the Pyongyang Declaration to the Japanese people is the possibility of increase national security.
Potential
The Pyongyang Declaration provided an avenue by which Japan gained abducted citizens and gives cause for optimistic dreams of better relations with North Korea. If everything set forth in the Declaration is fulfilled Japan will have relieved issues of global importance and developed a trade relationship that opens up new markets for products and democracy.